Doro PhoneEasy® 624 15. Charging socket 16. Headset socket 17. Assistance button Left selection button 20. External display Input method/Silent 22. Green light = New message 10. Message shortcut 23. Red light = Battery level low 11. Volume control 24. Charging stand 12. End call/Power on/off 14. Right selection button The items supplied with your phone might vary depending on the soft-ware and accessories available in your region or offered by your serviceprovider. You can obtain additional accessories from your local Doro deal-er. The supplied accessories provide the best performance with yourphone.
Even if Viagra is not needed, it is possible that the doctor will be able to determine the etiology of erectile dysfunction and prescribe appropriate treatmen priligy australia it doesn't pay to forget about sexual activeness even at the first sings of malfunction.
Mary meeker web 2.0 finalTechnology / Internet Trends
November 5, 2008
Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could
affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Morgan Stanley in
the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this
independent research at www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call 1-800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
1. Recession – a long time coming, how long will it last? 2. Technology & Advertising Spending – closely tied to GDP growth Technology / Internet 1. Digital Consumer – Undermonetized social networks / video / VoIP driving powerful usage growth 2. Mobile – Innovation in wireless products / services accelerating 3. Emerging Markets – Pacing next wave of technology adoption 1. Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive – consumers need value more than they have needed it in a long time… 1) Recession – a long time coming, how long will it last? Roots of Economic Challenge? 10+ Years of Rising Home Ownership + Declining Interest / Savings Rates U.S. Homeownership Rates vs. Interest Rates vs. Personal Savings Rates, 1965-2008
June 2004: US home ownership = 73MM
January 1993: HUD began promoting
broader home ownership. US home
ownership = 62MM
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
U.S. Home Ownership Rate
U.S. Interest Rate
U.S. Home Ownership Rate 30-year (1965-1995) Trendline
U.S. Personal Savings Rate
Note: HUD is Department of Housing & Urban Development. Interest rate is the overnight federal funds rate. Source: Federal Reserve, DOC Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Morgan Stanley Research. 10 Years of Rising Home Prices – Up 2x U.S. Real Home Price & Building Cost Indexes, % Change 1965 - 2007
U.S. Real Home Price Index
U.S. Real Building Cost Index
Note: Real home prices & building costs are adjusted for inflation; Source: Robert Shiller. USA Total Debt = Up 2x Over 30 Years to 3x GDP Foreign Ownership Ramped to 60% US Treasuries – Helped Pace ‘Easy Money' + Leverage U.S. Total Debt, % of GDP
Foreign Ownership of US Treasuries, % of Total Market Capitalization
Source: Bridgewater, total debt include both public and private debt, US government debt = 65% GDP, Morgan Stanley Research. -0.3% Q/Q US GDP Growth in CQ3 / Consumer Spending Fell 3.1% Biggest Q/Q Decline Since 1980 – October < September < August < July U.S. Real GDP vs. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Q/Q % Change, 2005-2008
U.S. Real GDP Q/Q Growth
U.S. Real PCE Q/Q Growth
Note, Real GDP and real PCE are inflation-adjusted, Real PCE is seasonally adjusted. CQ3:08 data is "advanced," may differ from final reported #s. Source: BEA, Morgan Stanley Research. Global GDP Growth Forecasts Have Downward Bias – Decelerating / Negative Growth for 2008E + 2009E Difference from
IMF Forecasts, 10/08
7/08 IMF Forecasts
Country / Region
Developed Markets(1) Emerging Markets(2) Note: (1) IMF equivalent of "advanced economies"; (2) IMF equivalent of "emerging and developing economies"; Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, 10/08. Morgan Stanley Research. Stock Market = Leading Indicator of Economic Growth China off 71% vs. 12-Month Peak, Russia -67% / Japan -50% / Oil -53% / S&P500 -36% =
NASDAQ Composite Index
China Shanghai SE Composite
Light Crude Oil - Continuous Contract
Gold - Continuous Contract
Japan Nikkei 225
Note: all indices start at a value of 100 on 10/31/05; data as of 10/31/08; Source: FactSet. Your Customers Have Taken Big Hits Total Mkt
Current (1) Market Cap Leaders
JPMorgan, Bank of America Consumer Discretionary McDonald's, Walt Disney GE, United Technologies Information Technology Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer Wal-Mart, Procter & Gamble S&P 500 Total (2)
Note: (1) % Change from S&P 500 peak of 10/9/07 to 10/31/08; (2) S&P 500 total market cap and % change, different from SP50 index price & % change. Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. 2) Technology + Advertising Spending – closely tied to GDP growth…also, remembering 2000-2003 Retail Sales Growth Rates Slowing Retail Sales vs. Adjusted E-Commerce Sales
Y/Y Growth, CQ3:01 - CQ2:08
US Adjusted Retail E-Commerce Sales
US Total Retail Sales
Note: E-Commerce adjusted for eBay by adding eBay US gross merchandise volume and subtracting eBay US transaction revenue; Source: US Dept. of Commerce (CQ2:08), Morgan Stanley Research. Advertising Growth Rates Slowing U.S. Advertising Spending by Medium, Y/Y % Change
*Note: Internet is adjusted to include search ad spending - TNS excludes search revenue from Internet ad spending, thus unadjusted data may under-report online ad spending / growth. Source: TNS, IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. Advertising Spending & GDP Growth = High Correlation of 81% U.S. Advertising Spending Y/Y Growth vs. Real GDP Y/Y Growth, 1986 – 2007
Median Y/Y Ad Spend
Growth Rate = 5%
1991 Ad Growth = -2%
2001 Ad Growth = -12%
U.S. Real GDP Y/Y Growth
U.S. Ad Spend Y/Y Growth
Source: Zenith Optimedia, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research. Simple Regression Analysis:
1) Ad spend growth 3x sensitivity of real GDP growth 2) If GDP flat (current MS forecast), ad spend could decline 4% Y/Y U.S. Advertising Spending vs. Real GDP
y = 3.0263x – 0.0394
1986 – 2007
R2 = 0.6553
y – ad spend growth
x – real GDP growth
If real GDP
Real GDP Y/Y Growth
U.S. Ad Spend vs. Real GDP Y/Y Growth
Linear Regression Line (y = 3.0263x - 0.0394 R 2 = 0.6553)
Note: R2 of 0.655 indicates that correlation is not perfect (n=22), and correlation does not equal causation. Source: Zenith Optimedia, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research. Online Ad Spending Bad News = From 2000 to 2002, USA Spending Fell 27% U.S. Online Advertising Spending & Y/Y Growth Rates, 1996-2007
U.S. Internet Ad Spending
Y/Y Growth Rate
Source: IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. Online Ad Spending Good News = Now, Less Ad ‘Over Spending' vs.
Trend Line However, Q/Q Pattern Looks a Bit Like Early 2001 U.S. Online Advertising Spending & Y/Y Growth Rates, CQ1:96-CQ2:08
U.S. Online Ad Spending
Spending on Search
Online Ad Spend Polynomial Trendline
Source: IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. Tech Spending 2000-2003 – 2 Years of Negative / Flat Growth – -1% in 2001 / 0% in 2002 / +13% in 2003 Global Technology Sector Revenue & Y/Y Growth, 1998-2008E
Growth = 10%
Note: Revenue and growth rates compiled from 570 publically traded global technology companies as of 10/30/08. Certain data points unavailable in earlier periods. Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. 5 Quarters of Negative Q/Q Growth, Then 5 Quarters of Flat / Modest Growth –Trough Y/Y Decline of 13% in CQ4:01, Current CH2:08 Forecasts Show Faster Rate of Decline than CH2:01 Global Technology Sector Revenue & Y/Y Growth, 1998-2008E
Growth = 10%
Note: Revenue and growth rates compiled from 570 publically traded global technology companies as of 10/30/08. Certain data points unavailable in earlier periods. Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. Technology / Internet 1) Digital Consumer – Undermonetized social networks / video / VoIP driving powerful usage growth – opportunity for innovative marketers to capitalize on low CPMs YouTube + Facebook Gained 500 Basis Points of Relative Share in Past 2+ Years While Yahoo! + MSN Lost Share Global Minute Share
Source: ComScore Global 9/08, Morgan Stanley Research.
Undermonetized Internet Usage Growth Drivers – Video + Social Networking + VoIP + Payments Y/Y Growth
#3 site in global minutes; 5B views of online video in the US (Americans watched a total of 12.6B videos / 591MM hours online in 9/08); #2 global search engine – search queries on
YouTube reached 9.2B in 8/08 (+123% Y/Y),
surpassing Yahoo! sites with 8.5B searches
#5 site in global minutes; 120MM+ active users; 50%+ users outside of college; 24K+ applications + 95% of Facebook members
have used at least one(1,4)
If ‘carrier' then #2 behind China Mobile; $1.55 annualized revenue per registered user (-3% Y/Y); 2.2B Skype Out minutes (+54% Y/Y);
16.0B Skype-to-Skype minutes (+63% Y/Y)(5)
$15B total payment volume (TPV), +28% Y/Y, higher than eBay's global gross merchandise volume; Off-eBay payment volume +49% Y/Y
to 51% of TPV(5)
Source: (1) comScore global 9/08; (2) comScore Video Metrix 8/08; (3) YouTube; (4) Facebook; (5) eBay CQ3, (6) comScore qSearch, 8/08. Morgan Stanley Research. Ad Supply > Ad Demand – Ad Impressions Growing Rapidly…CPMs Declining U.S. Banner Ad Impressions & CPM,
U.S. Rich Media Impressions & CPM,
Banner Ads Impressions
Banner Ads CPM
Rich Media Impressions
Rich Media CPM
Source: Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), Nielsen NetRatings, Morgan Stanley Research. Technology / Internet Innovation in wireless products / services accelerating – changes should create + destroy significant wealth
A New Computing Cycle With Game Changer Products with Nintendo Wii
Apple iPhone 3G
30MM consoles since 11/06 launch 1MM units sold in three days (10MM – raised bar with motion sensors + apps downloaded over the same period); mobile browser market share already 50% > Windows Mobile –raised bar with ease-of-use + functionality Microsoft Xbox 360
3 Skype Phone
12MM Xbox Live members (+100% 500K+ units in < 200 days. Leverage Y/Y) since 11/02 launch – raised large Skype user base of 370MM bar with online playability (+51%Y/Y) + create a low-cost web-enabled VoIP, social networking, digital presence phone. INQ1 next… Garmin + TomTom + Dash PND
With free EV-DO + 190K titles + 18MM+ units sold in 2007 (+125% Y/Y) newspaper / magazine / blog – lower price points + innovative subscriptions. Amazon may do with features such as spoken street names books what Apple did with tunes. have driven NA / Western Europe PND Kindle accounts for 12% of penetration of 11% in 2007 AMZN's sales for titles available on Kindle Source: Nintendo (CQ2:08), Microsoft, Amazon.com, Apple, TechCrunch estimates, eBay (CQ3), Garmin, TomTom, Net Applications 12/07, Morgan Stanley Research. Notebooks Retrofitting to Cloud Via 3G – PCs Retrofitted to Internet Via Dial-Up 1995 Deja Vu?! • Global cellular modem to rise from 5MM in 2006E to 68MM+ shipments in 2012E (53% CAGR) - ABI Research, 5/07 • 64% of new Austrian broadband subs used cellular modems, CQ2:07 • 66MM global WiFi unit shipments, C2007E - Synergy Research • 13MM cellular modem users in USA, CQ2:08E - Nielsen Mobile Source: ABI Research (Cellular modem shipments includes PC Cards / ExpressCards, USB modems, internal modems + 3G/Wi-Fi routers); Synergy Research Group (Access Points, Wireless Gateways / Routers, Wireless Client Adaptors, VoWLAN phones); Nielsen Mobile. Opera Mobile Web Browser Illustrates Mobile Internet Growth - 17MM Users (+357% Y/Y), 4.1B Page Views (+337% Y/Y), 8/08 A full web experience + 50% faster
Pages transcoded per month
− Remote Server first pre- processes requested web pages − Web content is then compressed to reduce the size of data transfer − Fully-rendered web pages sent to your phone − Advantage: full web rendering and faster browsing on simpler phones Source: Opera Software, Morgan Stanley Research. Mobile Internet Evolving Very Quickly Important Announcements in the Mobile Industry
AT&T announces reorganization to better align broadband, TV and mobile services for consumers.
Apple drops the non-disclosure agreement (NDA) for iPhone application developers.
Nokia to acquire leading consumer email and instant messaging provider OZ Communications.
Nokia's Chief Technology Officer Bob Iannucci resigns.
Motorola to build a 350-person Android team.
Google, T-Mobile and HTC launch G1, the first phone based on Google's Android open mobile platform.
Motorola hires Qualcomm's Sanjay Jha as co-chief executive to oversee the mobile devices division.
Nokia, Qualcomm settle patent dispute.
Apple and AT&T launch iPhone 3G in the U.S.
Nokia acquires Symbian Limited and establishes the Symbian Foundation.
RIM introduces the BlackBerry Bold smartphone.
RIM, RBC and Thomson Reuters to anchor a $150MM BlackBerry Partner Fund focused on developing mobile applications.
Apple, KPCB launches $100MM iFund venture capital pool to support iPhone / iPod Touch application development.
Source: Nokia, AT&T, Apple, Motorola, Google, T-Mobile, RIM, as of 10/01/08. Morgan Stanley Research. Symbian Dominates Smartphones But Losing Share – USA Could Gain Lead in Mobile Internet Innovation!? Quarterly Worldwide Smartphone Sales by OS Vendor
Source: Canalys, Symbian, 2007. Still Early in 3G+ Ramp But… 2010 Should Be Inflection Point @ 22% of Subscribers Global 3G+ Penetration
2.5G and Below Subscriptions
3G and Above Subscriptions
% 3G and Above Penetration
Note: 2.5G can be compared to ‘narrowband' Internet access, while 3G can be compared to ‘broadband ' Internet access. Source: Ovum, Morgan Stanley Research. Asia / Europe Lead in Mobile $s – Mobile Data 25% of Carrier Revenue in Asia vs. 18% in US, 2007 Mobile Data Subscribers
Mobile Data as % of Revenue
(leading carrier in region)
Source: ITU, Informa, Company Reports. Includes SMS; (1) Leading carriers by wireless subscribers in Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America are: China Mobile, Vodafone (Europe only), and AT&T, respectively. Japan Leads in Mobile Internet Usage – Mobile Nearly Matches PC Japan Internet Users by Access Device
Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. TV + Internet + Mobile (CBS) – Complementary Platforms 2007 Football Season
2007 Football Season CBS Mobile
Plasma Screen TV – HD Quality Event
PC Screen – Fantasy, Stats, and Injury Reports
Mobile Screen – Highlights, Scores
Source: CBS Sports Interactive. Technology / Internet 3) Emerging Markets – Pacing next wave of technology adoption – leading players in many emerging markets aren't the usual suspects… Broadband + Mobile + Internet = Especially High Global Growers Growth Rate
Broadband Subscribers Mobile Subscribers Internet Users(1) Financial Cards(2) Cable / Satellite TV Subscriptions Note: (1) Include mobile Internet users, based on ITU's compilation of country reports, surveys and estimates; (2) Includes credit / debit / ATM / charge cards in circulation; Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Top 10 Emerging Markets to Surpass Top 10 Developed Markets in Internet Users in 2008 Top 10 Emerging Markets vs. Top 10 Developed Markets – Internet Users
Top 10 Emerging Markets
Top 10 Developed Markets
Top 10 EM Y/Y Growth
Top 10 DM Y/Y Growth
Note: Emerging / developed markets as defined by IMF; Top 10 chosen based on largest GDP. Top 10 emerging markets: China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, Iran, Poland, and Saudi Arabia; Top 10 developed markets: U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Canada, South Korea, and Australia; Source: IMF, ITU, Morgan Stanley Research. Internet User Net Additions – China, Brazil, Pakistan, Columbia, India, Iran, Russia Impressive Net Internet
Note: Penetration is per person. Source: ITU, Morgan Stanley Research. Mobile Subscriber Net Additions – Pakistan = 226% more than USA, Indonesia = 33% more than USA, Iran just 5% less than USA Mobile Subs
Note: (1) Penetration is per person; mobile subscribers include all active SIM card subscriptions; people in many countries outside of the US use more than one SIM cards on a regular basis, which may results in greater than 100% penetration levels. Source: Morgan Stanley Research. 1) Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive – consumers need value more than they have needed it in a long time…and the Internet should be the best place to find it… Lots of Retail Share to Gain USA Online Penetration = 6% and Rising Categories' Online Penetration of US Retail Market, 2007
Computer products Toys / video games Other event tickets Cosmetics / fragrances Consumer electronics Sporting goods / apparel OTC meds / personal care Gift cards / certificates Appliances / tools Apparel / footwear Auto / auto parts Food / beverage / grocery Source: The State of Retailing Online 2008 (Forrester Research). Amazon.com Should Continue to Gain Share High Customer Satisfaction / Recommendation Engine / Impressive Metrics Amazon.com vs. US Retail
Key Operating Metrics
TTM Revenue per
(All metrics in MMs, except for TTM Revenue per Active Customer) US Adjusted Retail E-Commerce Sales
Amazon.com North America Revenue
US Total Retail Sales
(1) Adjusted for eBay by adding eBay US gross merchandise volume and subtracting eBay US transaction revenue; Source: Amazon.com (CQ2:08), US Dept. of Commerce (CQ2:08), Morgan Stanley Research. Lots of Ad Share to Gain $288 Per Home vs. $818 for Newspapers Implies Upside 2007 Advertising
Ad Spending /
Internet / Online
Newspapers include Classifieds. Promotions ($116B) include: incentives ($30B), promotional products ($27B), point-of- purchase ($19B), specialty printing ($9B), coupons ($7B), premiums ($7B), promotional licensing ($7B), promotional fulfillment ($6B), product sampling ($2B), and in-store marketing ($2B). Households may use multiple advertising mediums. Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, IAB, Jupiter Research, McCann-Erickson, Morgan Stanley Research. Search Should Continue to Become More Important –
34% Y/Y Google Query Growth (CQ3:08) % of New Online Customers for Online Retailers / Marketing Spend Mix
ffline advertising B ail to prospecting lists Traditional portal deals o-registration on other W Source: The State of Retailing Online 2007 / 2008 (Forrester Research), comScore global 9/08, Morgan Stanley Research. While CPMs / CPCs May be Under Near-Term Pressure, If Targeting / ROI Continue to Improve (as they should) There Should Be Long-Term Upside Source: Yahoo! Investor Presentation, 3/08. History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeballs, It Just Takes Time 1996 – Morgan Stanley Global Estimates in ‘The Internet Advertising Report'
2007 – We're @
Note: (1) ITU, Morgan Stanley Research estimate, comScore reports a lower number for global unique visitors due to their sampling method; (2) ZenithOptimedia; (3) Using comScore's #s, global online ad revenue per unique user would have been $53; Source: ITU, ZenithOptimedia, Morgan Stanley Research. Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A. and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley").
For important disclosures, stock price charts and rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Equity Research Management), New York, NY, 10036 USA.
The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Mary Meeker.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts.
Global Research Conflict Management Policy
Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.
Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies
The following analyst, strategist, or research associate (or a household member) owns securities (or related derivatives) in a company that he or she covers or recommends in Morgan Stanley Research: Mary Meeker - Amazon.com (common stock, common stock), eBay (common stock, common stock), Yahoo! (common stock, common stock). Morgan Stanley policy prohibits research analysts, strategists and research associates from investing in securities in their sub industry as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS," which was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P). Analysts may nevertheless own such securities to the extent acquired under a prior policy or in a merger, fund distribution or other involuntary acquisition.
As of September 30, 2008, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Amazon.com, eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!.
As of October 31, 2008, Morgan Stanley held a net long or short position of US$1 million or more of the debt securities of the following issuers covered in Morgan Stanley Research (including where guarantor of the securities): Amazon.com, eBay, GSI COMMERCE, Yahoo!.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Dice Holdings, Inc., eBay, GSI COMMERCE.
In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Amazon.com, Dice Holdings, Inc., eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, TechTarget, Inc., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from eBay.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following company: Amazon.com,Dice Holdings, Inc., eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, TechTarget, Inc., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following company: eBay, Google.
The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues.
An employee or director of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated is a director of Yahoo!.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Amazon.com, drugstore.com, eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, TechTarget, Inc., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!.
Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions.
Disclosure Section Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight or Underweight (see definitions below). Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy,
Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight and Underweight are not the equivalent of Buy, Hold and Sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all
ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully
read Morgan Stanley Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment
advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations.
Global Stock Ratings Distribution
(as of October 31, 2008)
For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight, Equal-
weight and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of
buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock
rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight to hold and Underweight to sell recommendations, respectively.
Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC) Stock Rating Category % of Rating Category Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.
Disclosure Section Analyst Stock Ratings
Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18
Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the
next 12-18 months.
Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-
More volatile (V). We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in
the analyst's view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years. Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically
rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that securities that we do not currently consider "more volatile" can still perform in that manner.
Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.
Analyst Industry Views
Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated
In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe - MSCI Europe;
Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index.
Other Important Disclosures
Morgan Stanley produces a research product called a "Tactical Idea." Views contained in a "Tactical Idea" on a particular stock may be contrary to the recommendations or views expressed in this or other research on the same stock. This may be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, market events, or other factors. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to Client Link at www.morganstanley.com.
For a discussion, if applicable, of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achieving these targets, please refer to the latest relevant published research on these stocks.
Morgan Stanley Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Morgan Stanley Research has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The securities/instruments discussed in Morgan Stanley Research may not be suitable for all investors. Morgan Stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. The securities, instruments, or strategies discussed in Morgan Stanley Research may not be suitable for all investors, and certain investors may not be eligible to purchase or participate in some or all of them.
Morgan Stanley Research is not an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. The "Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies" section in Morgan Stanley Research lists all companies mentioned where Morgan Stanley owns 1% or more of a class of common securities of the companies. For all other companies mentioned in Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley may have an investment of less than 1% in securities or derivatives of securities of companies and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in Morgan Stanley Research. Employees of Morgan Stanley not involved in the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research may have investments in securities or derivatives of securities of companies mentioned and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in Morgan Stanley Research. Derivatives may be issued by Morgan Stanley or associated personsMorgan Stanley and its affiliate companies do business that relates to companies/instruments covered in Morgan Stanley Research, including market making and specialized trading, risk arbitrage and other proprietary trading, fund management, commercial banking, extension of credit, investment services and investment banking. Morgan Stanley sells to and buys from customers the securities/instruments of companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research on a principal basis.
With the exception of information regarding Morgan Stanley, research prepared by Morgan Stanley Research personnel are based on public information. Morgan Stanley makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in Morgan Stanley Research change apart from when we intend to discontinue research coverage of a subject company. Facts and views presented in Morgan Stanley Research have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other Morgan Stanley business areas, including investment banking personnel.
Morgan Stanley Research personnel conduct site visits from time to time but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits.
The value of and income from your investments may vary because of changes in interest rates or foreign exchange rates, securities prices or market indexes, operational or financial conditions of companies or other factors. There may be time limitations on the exercise of options or other rights in your securities transactions. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. Unless otherwise stated, the cover page provides the closing price on the primary exchange for the subject company's securities/instruments.
Disclosure Section To our readers in Taiwan: Information on securities/instruments that trade in Taiwan is distributed by Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited ("MSTL"). Such information is for your reference only. Information on any
securities/instruments issued by a company owned by the government of or incorporated in the PRC and listed in on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong ("SEHK"), namely the H-shares, including the component company
stocks of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong ("SEHK")'s Hang Seng China Enterprise Index; or any securities/instruments issued by a company that is 30% or more directly- or indirectly-owned by the government of or a
company incorporated in the PRC and traded on an exchange in Hong Kong or Macau, namely SEHK's Red Chip shares, including the component company of the SEHK's China-affiliated Corp Index is distributed only to
Taiwan Securities Investment Trust Enterprises ("SITE"). The reader should independently evaluate the investment risks and is solely responsible for their investment decisions. Morgan Stanley Research may not be
distributed to the public media or quoted or used by the public media without the express written consent of Morgan Stanley. Information on securities/instruments that do not trade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only
and is not to be construed as a recommendation or a solicitation to trade in such securities/instruments. MSTL may not execute transactions for clients in these securities/instruments.
To our readers in Hong Kong: Information is distributed in Hong Kong by and on behalf of, and is attributable to, Morgan Stanley Asia Limited as part of its regulated activities in Hong Kong. If you have any queries concerning
Morgan Stanley Research, please contact our Hong Kong sales representatives.
Morgan Stanley Research is disseminated in Japan by Morgan Stanley Japan Securities Co., Ltd.; in Hong Kong by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts responsibility for its contents); in Singapore by Morgan Stanley
Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which accepts
responsibility for its contents; in Australia by Morgan Stanley Australia Limited A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial services licence No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents; in Korea by Morgan
Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch; in India by Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited; in Canada by Morgan Stanley Canada Limited, which has approved of, and has agreed to take responsibility for, the
contents of Morgan Stanley Research in Canada; in Germany by Morgan Stanley Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main, regulated by Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); in Spain by Morgan Stanley, S.V., S.A., a
Morgan Stanley group company, which is supervised by the Spanish Securities Markets Commission (CNMV) and states that Morgan Stanley Research has been written and distributed in accordance with the rules of conduct
applicable to financial research as established under Spanish regulations; in the United States by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc,
authorized and regulated by Financial Services Authority, disseminates in the UK research that it has prepared, and approves solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, research
which has been prepared by any of its affiliates. Private U.K. investors should obtain the advice of their Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc representative about the investments concerned. In Australia, Morgan Stanley
Research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. RMB Morgan Stanley (Proprietary) Limited is a member of the JSE Limited and regulated by the
Financial Services Board in South Africa. RMB Morgan Stanley (Proprietary) Limited is a joint venture owned equally by Morgan Stanley International Holdings Inc. and RMB Investment Advisory (Proprietary) Limited, which is
wholly owned by FirstRand Limited.
The information in Morgan Stanley Research is being communicated by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (the DFSA), and is directed at wholesale
customers only, as defined by the DFSA. This research will only be made available to a wholesale customer who we are satisfied meets the regulatory criteria to be a client.
The information in Morgan Stanley Research is being communicated by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (QFC Branch), regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (the QFCRA), and is directed at
business customers and market counterparties only and is not intended for Retail Customers as defined by the QFCRA.
As required by the Capital Markets Board of Turkey, investment information, comments and recommendations stated here, are not within the scope of investment advisory activity. Investment advisory service is provided in
accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory concluded between brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and clients. Comments and recommendations stated here rely
on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by
relying solely to this information stated here may not bring about outcomes that fit your expectations.
The trademarks and service marks contained in Morgan Stanley Research are the property of their respective owners. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy,
completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS") was developed by and is the exclusive
property of MSCI and S&P.
Morgan Stanley Research, or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley Research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form.
Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.
Disclosure Section 2008 Morgan Stanley
T i jdsch r i f t voo r Ge neesku n d ig Ad v ise u rs in pa r t icu lie re Ve r ze ke r ingsz a ke n GAVscoo p jaa rga ng 18 , n u m m e r 1, m e i 2 014 Van de redactie Van het bestuur Opiniecolumn GASTscoop: Anders Kijken Garanties op de bekwaamheid van de medisch specialist n.p. als medisch expert?