Ciencia y Tecnología: el riesgo del abandono Jorge Labarreda González. Algo que todo mundo sabe es que no hay mejor medicina para combatir las enfermedades que la prevención. De manera lógica se deduce: la fortaleza de una sociedad depende en gran parte de las medidas que tome para hacer frente a la contingencia, entendida esta, como todo aquello que se encuentra latente, con la
Electric Vehicles Electric vehicles (EVs) run by drawing currents from rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic arrays, among other sources of e lectric current, instead of employing a gasoline- or diesel-run internal combustion engine (ICE) (Department of Energy), thereby reducin g the dependence on fossil fuels. The shift to alternative fuels such as electricity generated from renewable energy is becomin g more essential as ―energy use in non-OECD Asia is expected to increase 118% by 2035, and harmful greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector are projected to increase more than 200% worldwide by 2030‖ (ADB). Apart from private vehicles, electricity -runpublic transit can also replace conventional nodes that are in operation in the form of electric minibuses or jeepneys (―e -jeepneys‖), electric three-wheelers (―e-tricycles‖), and electric bicycles. As the population of motorcycles in many Asian cities is high, w ith some employing old and environmentally damaging two-stroke engines no less, electric bicycles could save a significant amount of exhaust emissions. In some way, it replicates the efficiency of a motorbicycle in terms of speed and, at the same time, of a bicycle in terms of clean fuel source and of the physical activity (Dora, et. al 2011).
Pre-requisites and Challenges EVs are not precisely zero-emission vehicles and their effectiveness in cutting down vehicular emissions substantially depends on the ―materials used, the driving conditions and, most importantly, the carbon intensity of their electricity sources‖ (Gonzales 2012). Several countries generate their electricity from coal power plants, while some countries generate from renewable energy such as in Brazil where renewable hydropower is a common source of electricity (Kolke & Walsh 2005). This raises concern due to the possible increase in energy demand and due to the shifting of the burden to electric utilities. One important pre-requisite of electric vehicles is the availability of power on the electricity grid for the batteries to be charged. While commonly believed to be so as electricity demand is low at night when Tricycles in Cagayan de Oro batteries are being charged and that vehicle population growth will be Source: Constantine Agustin / Flickr / Creative Commons slow enough for grid capacity planning to respond adequately (Hadley 2006), potential to overload an electricity grid due to high penetration of these vehicles remains to be a concern. It is essential that data on Environmental Impacts electric grid capacity, electric private cars, electric public transport nodes, energy consumption and power requirements, and estimated market penetration of electric vehicles, among others, be available. As EVs are often regarded as having zero EVs run on batteries that need recharging, one challenge that this emissions; however, a life cycle analysis technology faces is the mile range, which is the distance that the shows that its production phase emits more vehicle can run on a single charge. Some EVs have 30–100 mile range emission than that of a vehicle powered by (48.28–160.93 kilometer range), although some EVs that are to be ICE, although it is offset during its released are believed to run 300 miles (482.80 kilometers) before the operational life if it generates electricity next charge (Union of Concerned Scientists). Another possible from sustainable sources. The primary challenge would be the investment needed for this technology. A hybrid environmental benefit of driving an EV is bus costs $200,000 on the average and its fuel economy savings must the reduced dependency on crude oil and be 40% to pay off its cost (Udasin 2013).
reduced GHG emissions, although this will highly depend on the source of electricity generation. With an average occupancy of 2.5, gasoline-powered cars emit 130–170 CO -equivalent emissions per passenger- kilometer, diesel-powered cars emit 85–120 CO -equivalent emissions per passenger-kilometer, and natural gas-powered cars emit 100–135 CO - equivalent emissions per passenger-kilometer.
On the other hand, an EV with an average occupancy of 2 has only 30–100 CO - equivalent emissions per passenger- One of the primary concerns of kilometer (Dora, et. al 2011). The According to Institute for Climate and vehicles running on internal significant abatement of emissions makes Sustainable Cities (iCSC), replacing combustion engines is the particular this improvement in vehicle technology and matter as it the ―most potent in terms spent batteries in e-jeepneys with a fully power generation even more essential. charged one would cost P200 ($4.90) and Furthermore, in the Philippines, ―under a of impact on human health,‖ while other health concerns include ―SO would allow 115 kilometers of passenger business as usual scenario, between 2007 travel, while a diesel-run jeepney have to NO , CO, and air toxics like benzene and 2030: the total GHG emissions for the and formaldehyde‖ spend P1,200 ($29.20) to cover the same (Clean Air Asia). power sector will increase by 400% (from distance (Sarmiento 2012). On the other Moreover, it will also bring domestic 26 MtCO e to 140 MtCO e); and for the hand, the daily recharging of the lithium- socioeconomic benefit in terms of job transport sector by more than 200% (from ion batteries of e-tricycles would cost generation for when these are to be 29 MtCO e to 95 MtCO e) driven by $1.20 (GMA News 2012), and will use 3– domestically produced and assembled. substantial increase of import of crude oil 5 kilowatt-hour of electricity to travel The five-year implementation plan of (for transport) and coal (for power approximately 100 kilometers (ADB),while generation)‖ (ADB). the ADB's e-tricycle project, for the daily fuel requirement to run the instance, will create up to 10,000 jobs conventional units would cost $6–$8 (Añonuevo 2012). The promotion of According to a report by Chris Cherry (GMA News 2012) using 5–7 liters of electricity-run public transit is a more (2009), the electric bikes in China, which gasoline to travel approximately 100 viable option than promoting private are used by 40 to 50 million people as of kilometers (ADB). The reduced EVs, especially in developing cities 2007, emit high levels of SO from the consumption in fuel would result to where a large fraction of the population burning of coal for electricity generation. decrease in fuel imports. At the same depend on public transportation and The range of emissions by a medium-size time, the savings increase the daily net especially when average occupancy of electric bike is 15.8–27.3 grams of CO per take-home income of the drivers. During private vehicles is relatively low, kilometer, 4.2–39.7 grams of SO per 100 a pilot program in Manila, daily incomes because the present generation of EVs kilometers, 0.3–1.9 grams of of e-tricycle drivers were found to have are expensive, and highly subsidizing /100 kilometers, 0.6–3.1 grams of more than doubled (Añonuevo 2012). and providing incentives for its PM /100 kilometers, and 2.5–9.4 grams purchase and usage may bring about of NO /100 kilometers. Studying its social equity issues.
environmental performance is relative to the modes it is compared to. for instance, such emissions translateto e-bikes having 15 percent less CO per passenger-kilometer (and using less
energy per passenger-kilometer) as
compared to a bus loading 50
passengers, but emit higher SO
over their life cycle. On the other hand, e-bikes are environmentally better alternatives for locations where motorcycles form a large fraction of the motor vehicle population.
In the Philippines, the estimated population
of 3.5 million units tricycles and
motorcycles emit nearly 10 million tons of
CO -equivalent emissions annually, and
e-tricycles are found to be able to abate 260,000 tons of CO emissions annually (ADB). One e-jeepney also saves 62 kg of CO emissions daily (Sarmiento 2012). While rail and bus transits are common in Metro Manila, a large fraction of the population remains dependent on smaller nodes of public transport like jeepneys and In 2010, 3,000 two-stroke tricycles were plying through the streets of Surigao, Cagayan de Oro, providing livelihood to 6,000 operators and drivers. However, in the same year, the local government discontinued renewing the franchise of gasoline -fed tricycles and offered access to low-cost credit from micro-financing source to encourage operators to shift to e-tricycles. Their local government cites that the e-tricycles can run 80 kilometers with one charge and have a seating capacity of eight people. E-tricycles in Surigao were found to be more environmentally-friendly as they will be powered by renewable energy. The shift was part of the project of Islas Ecology Development Advocacy (ISDA) Foundation which pushes for alternative modes of public transport. ISDA also demonstrated the viability of solar-powered charging stations to serve the e-tricycles. One unit of e-tricycle would cost a bit more than the conventional tricycles that cost PHP 50,000–PHP 75,000 per unit, but no estimates on theactual price of one unit have been given then(Dumas 2010). According to a report by Clean Air Asia, e-tricycles "are available for the 1 kW and 3 kW motor configurations costing PHP 160,000.00 and PHP 230,000.00 (USD 3636 and USD 5227) respectively." It is important to note also that the "detailed life cycle cost analysis however indicated that the vehicle will be viable only if the selling price is no more than 25% higher compared to conventional vehicles" and that "this is expected to be attained if the vehicle is mass produced." The same report indicates that 20-30% of the weight of the e-tricyle is attributed to six lead acid 70 Ah batteries, which will run for 40 to 60 kilometers but will have to be replaced before it reaches its second year. E-tricycle providers are however already looking into lithium iron phosphate (LiFEPO4) battery for better viability.
Añonuevo, Euan Paulo C. "ADB provides $300-million loan for shift to electric tricycles." Interaksyon. December 11, 2012. http://www.interaksyon.com/business/50176/adb-provides-300-million-loan-for-shift-to-electric-tricycles (accessed December 15, 2012).
Asian Development Bank. "E-trikes - Driving change." Asian Development Bank. http://www.adb.org/projects/43207-012/background (accessed December 15, 2012).
—. "Project data sheet: Mitigation of climate change through increased energy efficiency and the use of clean energy." Asian Development Bank. http://www.adb.org/projects/43207-012/details (accessed December 15, 2012).
Biona, Manny, Sudhir Gota, Bert Fabian, Alvin Mejia. "Cost-benefit analysis of technology and replacement options for 2-stroke three-wheelers in the Philippines." Clean Air Asia. July 2011. http://cleanairinitiative.org/portal/sites/default/files/3W_Report_Feb9.pdf (accessed May 13, 2013).
Cherry, Christopher. " Electric bikes in the People's Republic of China: Impact on the environment and prospects for growth." Asian Development Bank. 2009. http://cleanairinitiative.org/portal/sites/default/files/73435_bike.pdf (accessed May 13, 2013).
Clean Air Asia. "Are electric vehicles viable in Kathmandu - A cost-benefit perspective." Clean Air Asia.
http://cleanairinitiative.org/portal/node/2612 (accessed December 15, 2012).
—. "Electric vehicles." Clean Air Asia. http://cleanairinitiative.org/portal/electricvehicles.
Decher, Ulrich. "Economic and emissions impacts of electric vehicles." The Energy Collective. February 15, 2011. http://theenergycollective.com/ansorg/51761/economic-and-emissions-impacts-electric-vehicles (accessed December 15, 2012).
Department of Energy. "Frequently asked questions on electric vehicles." Department of Energy, Philippines.
http://www.doe.gov.ph/AF/Status/EV%20FAQs%20revised%20April%202012.pdf (accessed December 15, 2012).
Dora, Carlos, Jamie Hosking, Pierpaolo Mudu, and Elaine Ruth Fletcher. "Sustainable transport: A sourcebook for policy -makers indeveloping cities, Module 5g: Urban Transport and Health." World Health Organization. 2011. http://www.who.int/hia/green_economy/giz_transport.pdf (accessed December 15, 2012).
Dumas, Louise G. "Surigao City stops franchising of gas-fed tricycles as it starts shift to electric tricycles." Business World Online via Surigao Islands. June 18, 2010. http://www.surigaoislands.com/surigao/index.php/component/content/article/80 -surigao-local-news/145-surigao-city-stops-franchising-of-gas-fed-tricycles-as-it-starts-shift-to-electric-tricycles.html (accessed December 15, 2012).
GMA News. "PHL gives green-light to electric tricycles." GMA News. December 11, 2012. http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/285964/scitech/technology/phl-gives-green-light-to-electric-tricycles (accessed December 3,2012).
Gonzales, Franco. "How green are electric vehicles really?" Electric Vehicles Research. August 7, 2012. http://www.electricvehiclesresearch.com/articles/how-green-are-electric-vehicles-really-00004616.asp?sessionid=1 (accessed December 15, 2012).
Hadley, Stanton W. "Oak Ridge National Laboratory." Impact of plug-in hybrid vehicles on the electric grid. October 2006. http://www.ornl.info/info/ornlreview/v40_2_07/2007_plug-in_paper.pdf (accessed December 3, 2012).
Kolke, Reinhard, and Michael P. Walsh. "Sustainable transport: A sourcebook for policy-makers in developing cities, Module 4a: Cleaner fuels and vehicle technologies ." Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). November 2005. http://www.giz.de/Themen/en/dokumente/en_4a_CFVT.pdf (accessed December 3, 2012).
Sarmiento, Prime. "Science and Development Network." Electric ease Philippines air pollution. March 16, 2012. http://www.scidev.net/en/south-east-asia/news/electric-jeepneys-ease-philippines-air-pollution-1.html (accessed December 15, 2012).
Additional resources: Asian Electric Vehicle Society Website:http://www.union-services.com/aevs/ BBC Website, "Paris launches electric car-sharing scheme", 30 September 2011http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15134136 Grünig Max, Witte Marc, Marcellino Dominic, Selig Jordan, Van Essen Huib, "An overview of Electric Vehicles on the market and indevelopment", April 2011 http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/docs/d1_en.pdf Weinert Jonathan, Ma Chaktan, Cherry Chris, "The Transition To Electric Bikes In China: History And Key Reasons For Rapid Growth", 2006http://pubs.its.ucdavis.edu/download_pdf.php?id=1045 Yang Chi-Jen, "Launching strategy for electric vehicles: Lessons from China and Taiwan", Technological Forecasting & Social Change 77 (2010) 831–834http://people.duke.edu/ cy42/EV.pdf
Public Health & Aging 24th Annual Student Mentoring n Gerontology and Geriatrics Key Note Address and Paper Abstracts March 29-30, 2013 Copyright © 2014 by The University of Georgia Institute of Gerontology in the College of Public Health. All rights reserved. No portion of this report, or the data that it contains, may be reproduced without the express written consent of the authors. Copies of this report may be obtained from The University of Georgia Institute of Gerontology, 255 E. Hancock Ave., Athens, GA 30602. Our website is http://www.publichealth.uga.edu/geron.