HM Medical Clinic

 

Mary meeker web 2.0 final

Technology / Internet Trends
November 5, 2008
Web 2.0 Summit – San Francisco
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1. Recession – a long time coming, how long will it last? 2. Technology & Advertising Spending – closely tied to GDP growth Technology / Internet 1. Digital Consumer – Undermonetized social networks / video / VoIP driving powerful usage growth 2. Mobile – Innovation in wireless products / services accelerating 3. Emerging Markets – Pacing next wave of technology adoption 1. Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive – consumers need value more than they have needed it in a long time… 1) Recession – a long time coming, how long will it last? Roots of Economic Challenge? 10+ Years of Rising Home Ownership + Declining Interest / Savings Rates U.S. Homeownership Rates vs. Interest Rates vs. Personal Savings Rates, 1965-2008
June 2004: US home ownership = 73MM
January 1993: HUD began promoting
broader home ownership. US home
ownership = 62MM
1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
U.S. Home Ownership Rate
U.S. Interest Rate
U.S. Home Ownership Rate 30-year (1965-1995) Trendline
U.S. Personal Savings Rate
Note: HUD is Department of Housing & Urban Development. Interest rate is the overnight federal funds rate. Source: Federal Reserve, DOC Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Morgan Stanley Research. 10 Years of Rising Home Prices – Up 2x U.S. Real Home Price & Building Cost Indexes, % Change 1965 - 2007
U.S. Real Home Price Index
U.S. Real Building Cost Index
Note: Real home prices & building costs are adjusted for inflation; Source: Robert Shiller. USA Total Debt = Up 2x Over 30 Years to 3x GDP Foreign Ownership Ramped to 60% US Treasuries – Helped Pace ‘Easy Money' + Leverage U.S. Total Debt, % of GDP
Foreign Ownership of US Treasuries, % of Total Market Capitalization
Source: Bridgewater, total debt include both public and private debt, US government debt = 65% GDP, Morgan Stanley Research. -0.3% Q/Q US GDP Growth in CQ3 / Consumer Spending Fell 3.1% Biggest Q/Q Decline Since 1980 – October < September < August < July U.S. Real GDP vs. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Q/Q % Change, 2005-2008
U.S. Real GDP Q/Q Growth
U.S. Real PCE Q/Q Growth
Note, Real GDP and real PCE are inflation-adjusted, Real PCE is seasonally adjusted. CQ3:08 data is "advanced," may differ from final reported #s. Source: BEA, Morgan Stanley Research. Global GDP Growth Forecasts Have Downward Bias – Decelerating / Negative Growth for 2008E + 2009E Difference from
IMF Forecasts, 10/08
7/08 IMF Forecasts
Country / Region
Developed Markets(1) Emerging Markets(2) Note: (1) IMF equivalent of "advanced economies"; (2) IMF equivalent of "emerging and developing economies"; Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, 10/08. Morgan Stanley Research. Stock Market = Leading Indicator of Economic Growth China off 71% vs. 12-Month Peak, Russia -67% / Japan -50% / Oil -53% / S&P500 -36% =
e
s
a
(b
e 300
NASDAQ Composite Index
China Shanghai SE Composite
India SENSEX
Russia RTS
Light Crude Oil - Continuous Contract
Gold - Continuous Contract
Japan Nikkei 225
Note: all indices start at a value of 100 on 10/31/05; data as of 10/31/08; Source: FactSet. Your Customers Have Taken Big Hits Total Mkt
S&P Sector
Current (1) Market Cap Leaders
JPMorgan, Bank of America Consumer Discretionary McDonald's, Walt Disney GE, United Technologies Information Technology Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer Wal-Mart, Procter & Gamble S&P 500 Total (2)
Note: (1) % Change from S&P 500 peak of 10/9/07 to 10/31/08; (2) S&P 500 total market cap and % change, different from SP50 index price & % change. Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. 2) Technology + Advertising Spending – closely tied to GDP growth…also, remembering 2000-2003 Retail Sales Growth Rates Slowing Retail Sales vs. Adjusted E-Commerce Sales
Y/Y Growth, CQ3:01 - CQ2:08
US Adjusted Retail E-Commerce Sales
US Total Retail Sales
Note: E-Commerce adjusted for eBay by adding eBay US gross merchandise volume and subtracting eBay US transaction revenue; Source: US Dept. of Commerce (CQ2:08), Morgan Stanley Research. Advertising Growth Rates Slowing U.S. Advertising Spending by Medium, Y/Y % Change
*Note: Internet is adjusted to include search ad spending - TNS excludes search revenue from Internet ad spending, thus unadjusted data may under-report online ad spending / growth. Source: TNS, IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. Advertising Spending & GDP Growth = High Correlation of 81% U.S. Advertising Spending Y/Y Growth vs. Real GDP Y/Y Growth, 1986 – 2007
th
w
ro
G 10%
/Y
Median Y/Y Ad Spend
Growth Rate = 5%
1991 Ad Growth = -2%
2001 Ad Growth = -12%
U.S. Real GDP Y/Y Growth
U.S. Ad Spend Y/Y Growth
Source: Zenith Optimedia, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research. Simple Regression Analysis:
1) Ad spend growth 3x sensitivity of real GDP growth 2) If GDP flat (current MS forecast), ad spend could decline 4% Y/Y U.S. Advertising Spending vs. Real GDP
y = 3.0263x – 0.0394
1986 – 2007
R2 = 0.6553
y – ad spend growth
x – real GDP growth
If real GDP
Y/Y growth
Y/Y growth
could be…
Real GDP Y/Y Growth
U.S. Ad Spend vs. Real GDP Y/Y Growth
Linear Regression Line (y = 3.0263x - 0.0394 R 2 = 0.6553)
Note: R2 of 0.655 indicates that correlation is not perfect (n=22), and correlation does not equal causation. Source: Zenith Optimedia, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research. Online Ad Spending Bad News = From 2000 to 2002, USA Spending Fell 27% U.S. Online Advertising Spending & Y/Y Growth Rates, 1996-2007
U.S. Internet Ad Spending
Y/Y Growth Rate
Source: IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. Online Ad Spending Good News = Now, Less Ad ‘Over Spending' vs.
Trend Line However, Q/Q Pattern Looks a Bit Like Early 2001 U.S. Online Advertising Spending & Y/Y Growth Rates, CQ1:96-CQ2:08
U.S. Online Ad Spending
Spending on Search
Y/Y Growth
Online Ad Spend Polynomial Trendline
Source: IAB, Morgan Stanley Research. Tech Spending 2000-2003 – 2 Years of Negative / Flat Growth – -1% in 2001 / 0% in 2002 / +13% in 2003 Global Technology Sector Revenue & Y/Y Growth, 1998-2008E
Average Y/Y
Growth = 10%
Y/Y Growth
Note: Revenue and growth rates compiled from 570 publically traded global technology companies as of 10/30/08. Certain data points unavailable in earlier periods. Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. 5 Quarters of Negative Q/Q Growth, Then 5 Quarters of Flat / Modest Growth –Trough Y/Y Decline of 13% in CQ4:01, Current CH2:08 Forecasts Show Faster Rate of Decline than CH2:01 Global Technology Sector Revenue & Y/Y Growth, 1998-2008E
Average Y/Y
Growth = 10%
Y/Y Growth
Note: Revenue and growth rates compiled from 570 publically traded global technology companies as of 10/30/08. Certain data points unavailable in earlier periods. Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. Technology / Internet 1) Digital Consumer – Undermonetized social networks / video / VoIP driving powerful usage growth – opportunity for innovative marketers to capitalize on low CPMs YouTube + Facebook Gained 500 Basis Points of Relative Share in Past 2+ Years While Yahoo! + MSN Lost Share Global Minute Share
Yahoo.com
Source: ComScore Global 9/08, Morgan Stanley Research.

Undermonetized Internet Usage Growth Drivers – Video + Social Networking + VoIP + Payments Y/Y Growth
#3 site in global minutes; 5B views of online video in the US (Americans watched a total of 12.6B videos / 591MM hours online in 9/08); #2 global search engine – search queries on
YouTube reached 9.2B in 8/08 (+123% Y/Y),
surpassing Yahoo! sites with 8.5B searches
(+2% Y/Y).(1,2,3,6)
#5 site in global minutes; 120MM+ active users; 50%+ users outside of college; 24K+ applications + 95% of Facebook members
have used at least one(1,4)
If ‘carrier' then #2 behind China Mobile; $1.55 annualized revenue per registered user (-3% Y/Y); 2.2B Skype Out minutes (+54% Y/Y);
16.0B Skype-to-Skype minutes (+63% Y/Y)(5)
$15B total payment volume (TPV), +28% Y/Y, higher than eBay's global gross merchandise volume; Off-eBay payment volume +49% Y/Y
to 51% of TPV(5)
Source: (1) comScore global 9/08; (2) comScore Video Metrix 8/08; (3) YouTube; (4) Facebook; (5) eBay CQ3, (6) comScore qSearch, 8/08. Morgan Stanley Research. Ad Supply > Ad Demand – Ad Impressions Growing Rapidly…CPMs Declining U.S. Banner Ad Impressions & CPM,
U.S. Rich Media Impressions & CPM,
(M 20,000
Banner Ads Impressions
Banner Ads CPM
Rich Media Impressions
Rich Media CPM
Source: Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), Nielsen NetRatings, Morgan Stanley Research. Technology / Internet Innovation in wireless products / services accelerating – changes should create + destroy significant wealth

A New Computing Cycle With Game Changer Products with Nintendo Wii
Apple iPhone 3G
30MM consoles since 11/06 launch 1MM units sold in three days (10MM – raised bar with motion sensors + apps downloaded over the same period); mobile browser market share already 50% > Windows Mobile –raised bar with ease-of-use + functionality Microsoft Xbox 360
3 Skype Phone
12MM Xbox Live members (+100% 500K+ units in < 200 days. Leverage Y/Y) since 11/02 launch – raised large Skype user base of 370MM bar with online playability (+51%Y/Y) + create a low-cost web-enabled VoIP, social networking, digital presence phone. INQ1 next… Garmin + TomTom + Dash PND
With free EV-DO + 190K titles + 18MM+ units sold in 2007 (+125% Y/Y) newspaper / magazine / blog – lower price points + innovative subscriptions. Amazon may do with features such as spoken street names books what Apple did with tunes. have driven NA / Western Europe PND Kindle accounts for 12% of penetration of 11% in 2007 AMZN's sales for titles available on Kindle Source: Nintendo (CQ2:08), Microsoft, Amazon.com, Apple, TechCrunch estimates, eBay (CQ3), Garmin, TomTom, Net Applications 12/07, Morgan Stanley Research. Notebooks Retrofitting to Cloud Via 3G – PCs Retrofitted to Internet Via Dial-Up 1995 Deja Vu?! • Global cellular modem to rise from 5MM in 2006E to 68MM+ shipments in 2012E (53% CAGR) - ABI Research, 5/07 • 64% of new Austrian broadband subs used cellular modems, CQ2:07 • 66MM global WiFi unit shipments, C2007E - Synergy Research • 13MM cellular modem users in USA, CQ2:08E - Nielsen Mobile Source: ABI Research (Cellular modem shipments includes PC Cards / ExpressCards, USB modems, internal modems + 3G/Wi-Fi routers); Synergy Research Group (Access Points, Wireless Gateways / Routers, Wireless Client Adaptors, VoWLAN phones); Nielsen Mobile. Opera Mobile Web Browser Illustrates Mobile Internet Growth - 17MM Users (+357% Y/Y), 4.1B Page Views (+337% Y/Y), 8/08 A full web experience + 50% faster
Pages transcoded per month
− Remote Server first pre- processes requested web pages − Web content is then compressed to reduce the size of data transfer − Fully-rendered web pages sent to your phone − Advantage: full web rendering and faster browsing on simpler phones Source: Opera Software, Morgan Stanley Research. Mobile Internet Evolving Very Quickly Important Announcements in the Mobile Industry
AT&T announces reorganization to better align broadband, TV and mobile services for consumers.
Apple drops the non-disclosure agreement (NDA) for iPhone application developers.
Nokia to acquire leading consumer email and instant messaging provider OZ Communications.
Nokia's Chief Technology Officer Bob Iannucci resigns.
Motorola to build a 350-person Android team.
Google, T-Mobile and HTC launch G1, the first phone based on Google's Android open mobile platform.
Motorola hires Qualcomm's Sanjay Jha as co-chief executive to oversee the mobile devices division.
Nokia, Qualcomm settle patent dispute.
Apple and AT&T launch iPhone 3G in the U.S.
Nokia acquires Symbian Limited and establishes the Symbian Foundation.
RIM introduces the BlackBerry Bold smartphone.
RIM, RBC and Thomson Reuters to anchor a $150MM BlackBerry Partner Fund focused on developing mobile applications.
Apple, KPCB launches $100MM iFund venture capital pool to support iPhone / iPod Touch application development.
Source: Nokia, AT&T, Apple, Motorola, Google, T-Mobile, RIM, as of 10/01/08. Morgan Stanley Research. Symbian Dominates Smartphones But Losing Share – USA Could Gain Lead in Mobile Internet Innovation!? Quarterly Worldwide Smartphone Sales by OS Vendor
Source: Canalys, Symbian, 2007. Still Early in 3G+ Ramp But… 2010 Should Be Inflection Point @ 22% of Subscribers Global 3G+ Penetration
2.5G and Below Subscriptions
3G and Above Subscriptions
% 3G and Above Penetration
Note: 2.5G can be compared to ‘narrowband' Internet access, while 3G can be compared to ‘broadband ' Internet access. Source: Ovum, Morgan Stanley Research. Asia / Europe Lead in Mobile $s – Mobile Data 25% of Carrier Revenue in Asia vs. 18% in US, 2007 Mobile Data Subscribers
Mobile Data as % of Revenue
(leading carrier in region)
Asia Pacific
N. America
Source: ITU, Informa, Company Reports. Includes SMS; (1) Leading carriers by wireless subscribers in Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America are: China Mobile, Vodafone (Europe only), and AT&T, respectively. Japan Leads in Mobile Internet Usage – Mobile Nearly Matches PC Japan Internet Users by Access Device
Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. TV + Internet + Mobile (CBS) – Complementary Platforms 2007 Football Season
2007 Football Season CBS Mobile
Patriots vs.
Plasma Screen TV – HD Quality Event
PC Screen – Fantasy, Stats, and Injury Reports
Mobile Screen – Highlights, Scores
Source: CBS Sports Interactive. Technology / Internet 3) Emerging Markets – Pacing next wave of technology adoption – leading players in many emerging markets aren't the usual suspects… Broadband + Mobile + Internet = Especially High Global Growers Growth Rate
Growth Rate
Market Size
Broadband Subscribers Mobile Subscribers Internet Users(1) Financial Cards(2) Cable / Satellite TV Subscriptions Note: (1) Include mobile Internet users, based on ITU's compilation of country reports, surveys and estimates; (2) Includes credit / debit / ATM / charge cards in circulation; Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Top 10 Emerging Markets to Surpass Top 10 Developed Markets in Internet Users in 2008 Top 10 Emerging Markets vs. Top 10 Developed Markets – Internet Users
Top 10 Emerging Markets
Top 10 Developed Markets
Top 10 EM Y/Y Growth
Top 10 DM Y/Y Growth
Note: Emerging / developed markets as defined by IMF; Top 10 chosen based on largest GDP. Top 10 emerging markets: China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, Iran, Poland, and Saudi Arabia; Top 10 developed markets: U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Canada, South Korea, and Australia; Source: IMF, ITU, Morgan Stanley Research. Internet User Net Additions – China, Brazil, Pakistan, Columbia, India, Iran, Russia Impressive Net Internet
Users Added
Y/Y Growth
Note: Penetration is per person. Source: ITU, Morgan Stanley Research. Mobile Subscriber Net Additions – Pakistan = 226% more than USA, Indonesia = 33% more than USA, Iran just 5% less than USA Mobile Subs
Y/Y Growth
Saudi Arabia
Note: (1) Penetration is per person; mobile subscribers include all active SIM card subscriptions; people in many countries outside of the US use more than one SIM cards on a regular basis, which may results in greater than 100% penetration levels. Source: Morgan Stanley Research. 1) Companies with cogent business models that provide consumer value should survive / thrive – consumers need value more than they have needed it in a long time…and the Internet should be the best place to find it… Lots of Retail Share to Gain USA Online Penetration = 6% and Rising Categories' Online Penetration of US Retail Market, 2007
Computer products Toys / video games Other event tickets Cosmetics / fragrances Consumer electronics Sporting goods / apparel OTC meds / personal care Gift cards / certificates Appliances / tools Apparel / footwear Auto / auto parts Food / beverage / grocery Source: The State of Retailing Online 2008 (Forrester Research). Amazon.com Should Continue to Gain Share High Customer Satisfaction / Recommendation Engine / Impressive Metrics Amazon.com vs. US Retail
Key Operating Metrics
TTM Revenue per
Total Units
(All metrics in MMs, except for TTM Revenue per Active Customer) US Adjusted Retail E-Commerce Sales
Amazon.com North America Revenue
US Total Retail Sales
(1) Adjusted for eBay by adding eBay US gross merchandise volume and subtracting eBay US transaction revenue; Source: Amazon.com (CQ2:08), US Dept. of Commerce (CQ2:08), Morgan Stanley Research. Lots of Ad Share to Gain $288 Per Home vs. $818 for Newspapers Implies Upside 2007 Advertising
Ad Spending /
Internet / Online
Newspapers include Classifieds. Promotions ($116B) include: incentives ($30B), promotional products ($27B), point-of- purchase ($19B), specialty printing ($9B), coupons ($7B), premiums ($7B), promotional licensing ($7B), promotional fulfillment ($6B), product sampling ($2B), and in-store marketing ($2B). Households may use multiple advertising mediums. Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, IAB, Jupiter Research, McCann-Erickson, Morgan Stanley Research. Search Should Continue to Become More Important –
34% Y/Y Google Query Growth (CQ3:08) % of New Online Customers for Online Retailers / Marketing Spend Mix
ffline advertising B ail to prospecting lists Traditional portal deals o-registration on other W Source: The State of Retailing Online 2007 / 2008 (Forrester Research), comScore global 9/08, Morgan Stanley Research. While CPMs / CPCs May be Under Near-Term Pressure, If Targeting / ROI Continue to Improve (as they should) There Should Be Long-Term Upside Source: Yahoo! Investor Presentation, 3/08. History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeballs, It Just Takes Time 1996 – Morgan Stanley Global Estimates in ‘The Internet Advertising Report'
2007 – We're @
Online Ad
Ad Revenue
per User:
Note: (1) ITU, Morgan Stanley Research estimate, comScore reports a lower number for global unique visitors due to their sampling method; (2) ZenithOptimedia; (3) Using comScore's #s, global online ad revenue per unique user would have been $53; Source: ITU, ZenithOptimedia, Morgan Stanley Research. Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A. and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley").
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